Club Nacional vs Defensor Sporting Prediction - September 20, 2026
Alternative:1-1
Goals: Under 3.51.30Lost
What is the prediction for Club Nacional vs Defensor Sporting?
The model's leading scoreline is 1 - 0, with 1-1 as the alternative. Recent form is the clearest supporting signal: Club Nacional are in better form heading into this match. The result can differ because recent matches may not reflect either team's level today.
Match analysis
City rivals Penarol are the highest-profile scalp in a five-match unbeaten run for Nacional, who host a struggling Defensor Sporting side on 20 September with Superior's model backing a 1-0 home win, and 1-1 next. Defensor sit 12th, fighting off relegation.
Nacional are unbeaten in five, including a win over Penarol
Nacional have won three and drawn two of their last five matches without a loss, a run that includes a 1-0 win over city rivals Penarol, and they sit fifth in Uruguay's table on 43 points with European qualification in reach. Defensor Sporting are 12th on 32 points and fighting to avoid the drop, with just one win in their last five and only four goals scored across that stretch, which supports the model's lean toward a home win.
Defensor won the reverse fixture in March
Defensor Sporting beat Nacional 2-1 the last time these two met in March, and two of the last three meetings have gone Defensor's way or finished level. If that away resilience shows up again, the 1-1 Superior lists as the alternative is a genuine outcome rather than a clean home win.
AI-assisted analysis, written from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.
Markets to consider
Best price we found across booksPremium model depth
Unlocked after full timePost match archive
Grade: LOST
This is the same model snapshot Premium members could view before kickoff. It has not been recalculated from the result.
Scoreline Depth
- 1-014.4%Our score
- 1-112.4%Alternative
- 2-010.2%
- 2-110.0%
- 0-09.5%
Top five combined: 56.5%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Market Probability View
Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.
Full Market Board
Correlated combos
Joint probabilities read from this match's score model. A combined market is not the product of two separate odds.
Outcome markets
Team goals
Model estimates from the same score model. These are probabilities, not betting recommendations.
Today's acca
2 selections at 1.61
See the ticketTelegram
Daily pick and morning ticket, on Telegram.
Join free
Team news
Expected formations
Head to Head
Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 21, 2026 | Defensor Sporting | 2 - 1 | Club Nacional |
| November 9, 2025 | Defensor Sporting | 1 - 1 | Club Nacional |
| May 18, 2025 | Club Nacional | 2 - 1 | Defensor Sporting |
League Table
League Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28 | +23 | 55 | ||
| 2 | 29 | +17 | 52 | ||
| 3 | 28 | +13 | 52 | ||
| 4 | 15 | +7 | 27 | ||
| 4 | 27 | +16 | 50 | ||
| 5 | 29 | +5 | 46 | ||
| 6 | 29 | +1 | 44 | ||
| 7 | 28 | +10 | 42 | ||
| 8 | 28 | -3 | 38 | ||
| 9 | 29 | -4 | 35 | ||
| 10 | 29 | -1 | 34 | ||
| 11 | 29 | -4 | 33 | ||
| 12 | 29 | -8 | 32 | ||
| 13 | 29 | -20 | 32 | ||
| 14 | 29 | -12 | 30 | ||
| 15 | 29 | -14 | 26 | ||
| 16 | 29 | -19 | 25 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peñarol Montevideo | 28 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 46 | 23 | 23 | 55 | |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 44 | 27 | 17 | 52 | DLDWW |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 28 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 35 | 22 | 13 | 52 | WLDDD |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 27 | WWDWL |
| 4 | Atletico Torque | 27 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 47 | 31 | 16 | 50 | LWWLW |
| 5 | Club Nacional | 29 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 43 | 38 | 5 | 46 | LDWLW |
| 6 | Wanderers | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 44 | WWWDW |
| 7 | Liverpool Montevideo | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 37 | 27 | 10 | 42 | DWLDW |
| 8 | Central Espanol | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 38 | DLDDW |
| 9 | Juventud | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 35 | DWLDL |
| 10 | Albion FC | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 34 | DLDWL |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 33 | LWDDW |
| 12 | Defensor Sporting | 29 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 32 | LDDDL |
| 13 | Cerro | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 32 | WWLLW |
| 14 | Boston River | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 30 | LLDDL |
| 15 | Danubio | 29 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 26 | DLDDD |
| 16 | Progreso | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 23 | 42 | -19 | 25 | WLLWL |
