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Genoa vs Sudtirol Prediction - 15 September 2026

Coppa ItaliaItalyFull time
Genoa
1-0
Sudtirol

Our pick:Under 3.5 goals

Odds 1.35Won

73%
Correct score
1-0
Alternative
2-0
Under 3.5 goals
4/5Sudtirol · last 5 games

Form

Genoa
  1. D 1-1
  2. L 1-4
  3. L 0-1
  4. L 0-2
  5. W 4-1
Sudtirol
  1. D 1-1
  2. W 2-0
  3. D 1-1
  4. W 1-0
  5. D 2-2

Bookmaker odds

1Home
1.53
XDraw
4.02
2Away
6.60
More markets
Total goals
Over 1.51.30
Under 1.53.54
Over 2.52.02
Under 2.51.79
Over 3.53.50
Under 3.51.30
Both teams to score
Yes2.04
No1.77
Odd/Even
Odd1.90
Even1.90
Handicap
Home -11.85
Away +11.95
Methodology
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Match analysis

Genoa have lost four of their last five matches at home, yet Superior's model still projects a narrow 1-0 win for them over Sudtirol in this Coppa Italia tie on 15 September. Sudtirol arrive unbeaten in five, the form line running the other way entirely.

Sudtirol have not lost in their last five matches

Sudtirol's recent form reads three wins and two draws, without a single defeat in that run, and they have kept a clean sheet in three of those five games. Genoa's home record over the same stretch is the opposite picture, four defeats in five, including a 1-4 scoreline among them. The model's projected 1-0 for Genoa rests on cup form resetting the pattern rather than continuing it, with a home crowd and a knockout tie offering a different context than the league results both sides carry into it.

Genoa have lost four of their last five matches at home

The clearest way this projection misses is Genoa's home form simply continuing: four losses in five, conceding at least once in every one of those defeats, including one game they shipped four. Sudtirol have scored in three of their last five and have not lost anywhere in that stretch, so an away goal, or even an away win, is a live scenario given the underlying form. What favours Genoa regardless is the occasion itself, a home cup night carrying more urgency than the league form both sides bring into it, but the recent numbers point away from a clean home win rather than toward one.

Written by the Superior Football Desk

More tips for this game

  • Asian Handicap: Home +0.25Won1.19
  • Asian Handicap: Home +0Won1.23
  • Goals: Under 3.5Won1.35
  • Match Winner: HomeWon1.63
  • Correct score: 1-0Won5.00
Compare bookmakers

Premium

After full time

Top five correct scores

  1. 1-014.0%Our score
  2. 2-011.9%Alternative
  3. 2-19.9%
  4. 1-19.0%
  5. 0-06.7%

Top five combined: 51.5%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeGenoaxG1.82
AwaySudtirolxG0.66
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
6.7%
14%
12%
6.5%
3.0%
1.1%
0.4%
1
6.6%
9.0%
9.9%
5.6%
2.3%
0.8%
0.3%
2
2.8%
5.0%
3.1%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
3
1.2%
1.6%
1.3%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
<0.1%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
5
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
6+
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%
<0.1%

Goals and BTTS chances

Both teams to score Yes 45.2%54.8% No
Over 1.5 72.8%27.2% Under 1.5
Over 2.5 49.2%50.8% Under 2.5
Over 3.5 26.6%73.4% Under 3.5

Combos

  1. Genoa win and over 2.5 goals34.2%
  2. Genoa win and both teams score23.2%
  3. Draw and under 2.5 goals15.6%
  4. Sudtirol win and over 2.5 goals11.2%
GenoaSudtirol
Outcome markets
Win or draw79.4%39.9%
Draw no bet74.5%25.5%
Win to nil36.9%11.2%
Either team wins80.6%
Team goals
To score82.2%56.4%
Over 1.5 goals51.9%22.0%
Clean sheet43.6%17.8%

Today's acca

2 games, total odds 1.61
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Prediction, preview and head to head: Genoa vs Sudtirol