Como vs Parma Prediction - 14 September 2026
Our pick:Under 3.5 goals
Odds 1.47Won
- Correct score
- 2-0
- Alternative
- 1-0
- Under 3.5 goals
- 5/5Parma · last 5 games
Form
- W 4-1
- W 4-1
- W 2-1
- D 1-1
- D 0-0
- D 1-1
- W 2-0
- L 0-2
- L 0-1
- W 2-0
Head to head
- 17 May 2026 Como 1 Parma 0 Serie A
- 25 Oct 2025 Parma 0 Como 0 Serie A
- 3 May 2025 Parma 0 Como 1 Serie A
Match analysis
Eight goals in two matches is a lot of recent scoring for Como to be carrying into an Under 3.5 goals pick, but Superior still prices it at 1.47 against Parma on 14 September, a 63 percent call from the model, about five points under the price's own break even rate.
The 1.47 price needs about 68 percent to break even
At 1.47, Under 3.5 needs to land close to 68 percent of the time before the standard market margin to break even, five points above the 63 percent the model assigns this pick. It is a modest gap rather than a clearly mispriced number, so the case still has to rest on what each side is doing on the pitch right now.
Parma have been the calmer side in this fixture historically
The two sides' last two meetings produced a 1-0 Como win and a 0-0 draw, both comfortably under tonight's line, and Parma's own recent matches back that pattern, a 1-1 draw at home to Monza followed by a 2-0 win away at Cremonese without conceding. That defensive discipline from Parma is doing more work for this pick than Como's attack.
Como have scored eight goals in their last two matches
Como have scored four goals in each of their last two matches, including a 4-1 Champions League win at home to RB Leipzig just days ago, form that is running hot at exactly the wrong moment for an Under 3.5 pick. If that scoring rate carries into Serie A against a Parma side that has also shown it can concede, four goals or more is a live outcome tonight.
More tips for this game
- Match Winner: Home
- Goals: Under 3.5
- Goals: Under 2.5
- Correct score: 2-0
- Correct score: 1-0
Premium
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 2-014.1%Our score
- 1-014.6%Alternative
- 2-19.7%
- 3-09.3%
- 1-19.2%
Top five combined: 56.9%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Como win and over 2.5 goals39.4%
- Como win and both teams score23.2%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals16.9%
- Parma win and over 2.5 goals5.4%
| Como | Parma | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 88.5% | 31.9% |
| Draw no bet | 85.5% | 14.5% |
| Win to nil | 44.9% | 6.7% |
| Either team wins | 79.6% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 85.6% | 47.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57.9% | 14.0% |
| Clean sheet | 52.6% | 14.4% |
Today's acca
2 games, total odds 1.61
League table
League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | +11 | 22 | |
| 2 | 7 | +12 | 19 | |
| 3 | 8 | +13 | 18 | |
| 4 | 8 | +7 | 17 | |
| 5 | 7 | +7 | 15 | |
| 6 | 7 | +4 | 13 | |
| 7 | 8 | +2 | 13 | |
| 8 | 8 | -3 | 13 | |
| 9 | 8 | +3 | 11 | |
| 10 | 7 | +1 | 11 | |
| 11 | 7 | -1 | 9 | |
| 12 | 7 | -3 | 9 | |
| 13 | 8 | -2 | 8 | |
| 14 | 8 | -4 | 8 | |
| 15 | 8 | -3 | 7 | |
| 16 | 7 | -7 | 4 | |
| 17 | 7 | -8 | 4 | |
| 18 | 7 | -9 | 4 | |
| 19 | 8 | -10 | 4 | |
| 20 | 7 | -10 | 3 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 22 | |
| 2 | Inter | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 19 | |
| 3 | AS Roma | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 18 | |
| 4 | Como | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 17 | |
| 5 | AC Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 15 | |
| 6 | Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 13 | |
| 7 | Torino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 13 | |
| 8 | Cagliari | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 13 | |
| 9 | Napoli | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 11 | |
| 10 | Juventus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 11 | |
| 11 | Atalanta | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 | |
| 12 | Lecce | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 | |
| 13 | Bologna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 | |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 8 | |
| 15 | Monza | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 7 | |
| 16 | Udinese | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 4 | |
| 17 | Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 | |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 | |
| 19 | Parma | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 | |
| 20 | Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 3 |