Derby vs Birmingham Prediction - 12 September 2026
Our pick:Under 3.5 goals
Odds 1.32Won
- Correct score
- 1-1
- Alternative
- 0-1
- Under 3.5 goals
- 4/5Derby · last 5 games
Form
- L 0-1
- L 0-3
- W 2-0
- L 0-3
- D 2-2
- L 1-2
- D 2-2
- D 1-1
- W 2-1
- L 1-6
Head to head
- 21 Mar 2026 Derby 1 Birmingham 0 Championship
- 26 Dec 2025 Birmingham 1 Derby 1 Championship
Match highlights
PremiumMatch analysis
Four matches in fourteen days have left Derby leaning on a tight scoreline against Birmingham on 12 September, where Superior backs Under 3.5 goals at 1.32, a 77 percent read on the pick. Tired legs on a short week rarely produce an open Championship match.
Derby have played four matches in fourteen days
Fixture load favours the under here: Derby are into their fourth match in a fortnight on two days' rest, while Birmingham have had the same short turnaround without the extra congestion. Derby have lost three of their last five, conceding ten goals in that spell, but their attack has not matched that leakiness, scoring five of their own in the same run.
The other worry is Birmingham's leaky defence
The risk is that neither defence has been settled lately. Birmingham have shipped twelve goals in their last five, including a 1-6 defeat, proof goals follow their matches even when they are the side conceding them. This loses if the two sides combine for four goals or more, and a Birmingham side that has been on the wrong end of a scoreline like that this season is not a safe bet to keep it tight against a tiring Derby defence either.
More tips for this game
- Goals: Under 3.5
- Goals: Under 2.5
- Correct score: 1-1
- Correct score: 0-1
Premium
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-113.0%Our score
- 0-111.7%Alternative
- 1-010.0%
- 0-09.0%
- 1-28.4%
Top five combined: 52.1%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Draw and under 2.5 goals22.0%
- Birmingham win and over 2.5 goals21.4%
- Derby win and over 2.5 goals16.3%
- Derby win and both teams score13.5%
| Derby | Birmingham | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 59.4% | 68.1% |
| Draw no bet | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| Win to nil | 18.4% | 23.8% |
| Either team wins | 72.5% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 67.1% | 72.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 30.6% | 37.1% |
| Clean sheet | 27.5% | 32.9% |
Today's acca
2 games, total odds 1.61
League table
League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | +10 | 25 | |
| 2 | 11 | +8 | 23 | |
| 3 | 11 | +18 | 22 | |
| 4 | 11 | +9 | 20 | |
| 5 | 11 | +3 | 20 | |
| 6 | 11 | +2 | 19 | |
| 7 | 11 | +3 | 18 | |
| 8 | 11 | +11 | 17 | |
| 9 | 11 | +3 | 17 | |
| 10 | 11 | +1 | 15 | |
| 11 | 11 | +1 | 15 | |
| 12 | 11 | 0 | 15 | |
| 13 | 11 | 0 | 15 | |
| 14 | 11 | -1 | 14 | |
| 15 | 11 | -3 | 14 | |
| 16 | 11 | -5 | 14 | |
| 17 | 12 | -7 | 14 | |
| 18 | 11 | -10 | 12 | |
| 19 | 11 | +1 | 11 | |
| 20 | 11 | -9 | 11 | |
| 21 | 11 | -4 | 9 | |
| 22 | 11 | -5 | 8 | |
| 23 | 11 | -11 | 6 | |
| 24 | 11 | -15 | 4 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 25 | |
| 2 | Swansea | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 23 | |
| 3 | West Ham | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 12 | 18 | 22 | |
| 4 | Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 20 | |
| 5 | West Brom | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 | |
| 6 | Stoke City | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 19 | |
| 7 | Wolves | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 18 | |
| 8 | Southampton | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 17 | |
| 9 | QPR | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 17 | |
| 10 | Blackburn | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 15 | |
| 11 | Sheffield United | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 15 | |
| 12 | Millwall | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 15 | |
| 13 | Portsmouth | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 15 | |
| 14 | Wrexham | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 14 | |
| 15 | Bristol City | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 14 | |
| 16 | Charlton | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 14 | |
| 17 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 14 | |
| 18 | Lincoln | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 12 | |
| 19 | Cardiff | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 11 | |
| 20 | Watford | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 11 | |
| 21 | Norwich | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 9 | |
| 22 | Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 8 | |
| 23 | Derby | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 6 | |
| 24 | Preston | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 4 |