Independiente del Valle vs Flamengo Prediction

Our pick:Over 1.5 goals

Odds 1.47Won

82%

Correct score: 1-1
Alternative: 2-1
Over 1.5 goals: 5/5Independiente del Valle · last 5 games

Form

Independiente del Valle

W 3-1
L 1-2
D 2-2
W 3-1
W 3-2

Flamengo

W 1-0
W 2-0
W 3-0
L 1-2
W 2-1

Bookmaker odds

3.25

2.95

2.46

More markets

Total goals

Over 1.51.41

Under 1.52.90

Over 2.52.38

Under 2.51.58

Over 3.54.38

Under 3.51.22

Both teams to score

Yes1.89

No1.91

Odd/Even

Odd2.05

Even1.77

Handicap

Home +0.251.78

Away -0.252.03

Methodology

Match highlights

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Match analysis

Expect goals when Independiente del Valle host Flamengo in the Copa Libertadores on 11 September: Over 1.5 is priced at 1.47 and rated 63 percent by Superior's model, even with Flamengo working on four days' rest since their last match.

A short turnaround has not blunted Flamengo

Four days is a tight window between matches, yet Flamengo have scored in four of their last five outings including three straight victories, suggesting the travel and rest burden has not caught up with their attack yet. Independiente del Valle have been even more prolific at home, scoring at least twice in three of their last five and rarely going quiet in front of their own supporters.

Where the fatigue finally shows

Flamengo's one blank in this stretch, a 1-2 loss, came in their most recent outing, which is exactly when a congested schedule tends to bite. If that tiredness carries into this match while Independiente del Valle's finishing also goes quiet, 0-0 or 1-0 is the result that beats this pick.

Written by the Superior Football Desk

More tips for this game

Goals: Over 1.5Won1.47
Correct score: 1-1Lost6.00

Compare bookmakers

After full time

Top five correct scores

1-110.7%Our score
2-19.0%Alternative
1-27.7%
1-07.4%
2-26.5%

Top five combined: 41.3%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeIndependiente del VallexG1.69

AwayFlamengoxG1.44

4.4%

7.4%

6.3%

3.5%

1.5%

0.5%

0.2%

6.3%

11%

9.0%

5.1%

2.1%

0.7%

0.3%

4.5%

7.7%

6.5%

3.6%

1.5%

0.5%

0.2%

2.2%

3.7%

3.1%

1.7%

0.7%

0.2%

<0.1%

0.8%

1.3%

1.1%

0.6%

0.3%

<0.1%

0.2%

0.4%

0.3%

0.2%

<0.1%

0.1%

<0.1%

Goals and BTTS chances

Both teams to score Yes 62.2%37.8% No

Over 1.5 81.9%18.1% Under 1.5

Over 2.5 60.5%39.5% Under 2.5

Over 3.5 38.1%61.9% Under 3.5

Combos

Independiente del Valle win and over 2.5 goals30.0%
Independiente del Valle win and both teams score24.3%
Flamengo win and over 2.5 goals22.0%
Draw and under 2.5 goals15.0%

Outcome markets
	Independiente del Valle	Flamengo
Win or draw	67.2%	56.4%
Draw no bet	57.1%	42.9%
Win to nil	19.4%	14.1%
Either team wins	76.5%
Team goals
To score	81.5%	76.3%
Over 1.5 goals	50.3%	42.1%
Clean sheet	23.7%	18.5%