Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction

Our pick:Under 3.5 goals

Odds 1.39Lost

75%

Correct score: 1-0
Alternative: 1-1
Under 3.5 goals: 4/5AD Ceuta FC · last 5 games

Form

Burgos

D 0-0
D 2-2
L 0-1
W 3-2
L 0-3

AD Ceuta FC

L 0-2
L 0-3
L 0-2
L 1-5
W 2-1

Head to head

1 Apr 2026 Burgos 1 AD Ceuta FC 1 Segunda Division
29 Nov 2025 AD Ceuta FC 1 Burgos 0 Segunda Division

Bookmaker odds

1.64

3.86

5.40

More markets

Total goals

Over 1.51.27

Under 1.53.18

Over 2.51.96

Under 2.51.85

Over 3.53.18

Under 3.51.27

Both teams to score

Yes1.90

No1.80

Odd/Even

Odd1.85

Even1.83

Handicap

Home -0.751.74

Away +0.751.93

Methodology

Match analysis

Burgos and AD Ceuta FC meet in the Spanish second tier on 11 September with Under 3.5 goals priced at 1.39, and Superior's model puts the line at 60 percent. Between them these two sides are averaging under two goals a game this season, and Ceuta have been held to two or fewer in four of their last five matches.

Two sides that do not find the net often

Burgos are scoring at barely a goal a game and Ceuta not much better, and only one of the ten combined matches in their last five apiece produced more than three goals in total. Ceuta's away form has been especially thin, with three shutout defeats in their last five on the road.

The one recent match that says otherwise

Burgos did concede three goals in their most recent home defeat, and if Ceuta's attack finds a similar gap here while also conceding at their usual rate, four goals combined is within reach. That single result is the exception the model is betting against, not the pattern.

Written by the Superior Football Desk

More tips for this game

Goals: Under 3.5Lost1.39
Correct score: 1-1Lost6.50

Compare bookmakers

After full time

Top five correct scores

1-013.2%Our score
1-111.4%Alternative
2-011.1%
2-19.6%
0-07.8%

Top five combined: 53.1%

Full score grid

Score Matrix

HomeBurgosxG1.69

AwayAD Ceuta FCxG0.86

7.8%

13%

11%

6.3%

2.6%

0.9%

0.3%

6.7%

11%

9.6%

5.4%

2.3%

0.8%

0.3%

2.9%

4.9%

4.1%

2.3%

1.0%

0.3%

0.1%

0.8%

1.4%

1.2%

0.7%

0.3%

<0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.1%

<0.1%

Goals and BTTS chances

Both teams to score Yes 47.1%52.9% No

Over 1.5 72.3%27.7% Under 1.5

Over 2.5 46.9%53.1% Under 2.5

Over 3.5 25.3%74.7% Under 3.5

Combos

Burgos win and over 2.5 goals32.7%
Burgos win and both teams score22.5%
Draw and under 2.5 goals19.2%
AD Ceuta FC win and over 2.5 goals9.4%

Outcome markets
	Burgos	AD Ceuta FC
Win or draw	81.0%	43.0%
Draw no bet	75.0%	25.0%
Win to nil	34.4%	10.7%
Either team wins	76.0%
Team goals
To score	81.5%	57.7%
Over 1.5 goals	50.3%	21.3%
Clean sheet	42.3%	18.5%

Today's acca

2 games, total odds 1.63

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Formations

Confirmed formations

Burgos: 4-4-2(confirmed lineup)AD Ceuta FC: 4-3-3(confirmed lineup)

Prediction, preview and head to head: Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC

League table

Segunda DivisionSpain · 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Castellón	11	8	2	1	22	4	+18	26
2	Almeria	11	8	1	2	22	9	+13	25
3	Eibar	11	7	1	3	20	13	+7	22
4	Girona	11	6	3	2	22	10	+12	21
5	Granada CF	11	6	2	3	18	14	+4	20
6	Mallorca	11	5	4	2	13	6	+7	19
7	Sporting Gijon	11	6	1	4	11	13	-2	19
8	Oviedo	11	5	3	3	15	12	+3	18
9	Burgos	10	5	2	3	13	10	+3	17
10	Sabadell	11	4	5	2	11	9	+2	17
11	Cordoba	11	5	0	6	17	20	-3	15
12	Eldense	11	4	2	5	13	15	-2	14
13	Tenerife	11	3	5	3	13	15	-2	14
14	Las Palmas	11	4	2	5	14	19	-5	14
15	Valladolid	11	3	3	5	16	16	0	12
16	Celta de Vigo II	11	3	3	5	16	21	-5	12
17	Leganes	11	3	3	5	7	16	-9	12
18	Cadiz	11	2	4	5	14	14	0	10
19	FC Andorra	10	3	1	6	13	17	-4	10
20	Real Sociedad II	11	2	2	7	14	22	-8	8
21	AD Ceuta FC	11	1	2	8	10	25	-15	5
22	Albacete	11	1	1	9	8	22	-14	4

Relegation

Segunda Division - League table
Position	Team	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	Goals For	Goals Against	Goal Difference	Points
1	Castellón	11	8	2	1	22	4	18	26
2	Almeria	11	8	1	2	22	9	13	25
3	Eibar	11	7	1	3	20	13	7	22
4	Girona	11	6	3	2	22	10	12	21
5	Granada CF	11	6	2	3	18	14	4	20
6	Mallorca	11	5	4	2	13	6	7	19
7	Sporting Gijon	11	6	1	4	11	13	-2	19
8	Oviedo	11	5	3	3	15	12	3	18
9	Burgos	10	5	2	3	13	10	3	17
10	Sabadell	11	4	5	2	11	9	2	17
11	Cordoba	11	5	0	6	17	20	-3	15
12	Eldense	11	4	2	5	13	15	-2	14
13	Tenerife	11	3	5	3	13	15	-2	14
14	Las Palmas	11	4	2	5	14	19	-5	14
15	Valladolid	11	3	3	5	16	16	0	12
16	Celta de Vigo II	11	3	3	5	16	21	-5	12
17	Leganes	11	3	3	5	7	16	-9	12
18	Cadiz	11	2	4	5	14	14	0	10
19	FC Andorra	10	3	1	6	13	17	-4	10
20	Real Sociedad II	11	2	2	7	14	22	-8	8
21	AD Ceuta FC	11	1	2	8	10	25	-15	5
22	Albacete	11	1	1	9	8	22	-14	4

Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction - 11 September 2026

Form

Head to head

Bookmaker odds

Match analysis

Two sides that do not find the net often

The one recent match that says otherwise

More tips for this game

Premium

Top five correct scores

Goals and BTTS chances

Combos

Confirmed formations

League table