Farense vs Chaves Prediction - 4 October 2026
Our pick:Under 3.5 goals
74%Odds 1.26Lost
Correct score1-1Alternative1-0
Form
- W 1-0
- D 0-0
- L 1-2
- D 1-1
- W 3-1
- W 3-2
- W 1-0
- L 1-2
- D 2-2
- L 0-1
Head to head
- 22 Feb 2026 Chaves 2 Farense 0 Segunda Liga
- 28 Sept 2025 Farense 0 Chaves 2 Segunda Liga
Match highlights
PremiumMatch analysis
Chaves have lost four of their last five matches and shipped ten goals in doing it, yet both of their wins over Farense came by tidy two-goal margins, the split record behind Superior's Under 3.5 goals price of 1.26 for their Liga Portugal 2 meeting on 6 September, a 73 percent probability.
Chaves' defence has been the problem, not their attack
Chaves have conceded in every one of their last five matches, including that 1-4 defeat and a 2-2 draw, but they have also failed to score in two of them, which keeps their own attacking output capped even as their defence leaks. Farense have been streakier, a 3-1 away win sitting next to two defeats, but neither side has shown the kind of consistent firepower that reliably produces four-goal matches.
Chaves have won this fixture twice without needing goals
LOSES IF: four or more goals combined. Both of Chaves' wins over Farense came by two-goal margins built on defence, not an avalanche of goals, so history argues for a similar shape again. The risk is Farense's home attack, which scored three in their last win, meeting a Chaves side already shipping goals for fun and pushing this into shootout territory instead.
More tips for this game
- Goals: Under 3.5
- Goals: Under 2.5
- Correct score: 1-1
Premium
After full time
Top five correct scores
- 1-112.2%Our score
- 1-011.7%Alternative
- 2-19.3%
- 2-08.9%
- 0-18.0%
Top five combined: 50.1%
Full score grid
Score Matrix
Goals and BTTS chances
Combos
- Farense win and over 2.5 goals27.8%
- Farense win and both teams score20.8%
- Draw and under 2.5 goals19.9%
- Chaves win and over 2.5 goals13.8%
| Farense | Chaves | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome markets | ||
| Win or draw | 74.0% | 51.6% |
| Draw no bet | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| Win to nil | 27.5% | 14.1% |
| Either team wins | 74.3% | |
| Team goals | ||
| To score | 78.2% | 64.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 45.0% | 28.1% |
| Clean sheet | 35.2% | 21.8% |
Today's acca
2 games, total odds 1.65League table
League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | +7 | 17 | |
| 2 | 7 | +4 | 15 | |
| 3 | 7 | +7 | 14 | |
| 4 | 7 | +7 | 13 | |
| 5 | 7 | 0 | 12 | |
| 6 | 7 | +2 | 12 | |
| 7 | 7 | +1 | 11 | |
| 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 | |
| 9 | 7 | +1 | 10 | |
| 10 | 7 | +1 | 10 | |
| 11 | 7 | -1 | 10 | |
| 12 | 7 | +1 | 9 | |
| 13 | 7 | -8 | 7 | |
| 14 | 6 | -1 | 6 | |
| 15 | 7 | -3 | 6 | |
| 16 | 7 | -4 | 5 | |
| 17 | 7 | -8 | 5 | |
| 18 | 7 | -8 | 1 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 17 | |
| 2 | Sporting CP B | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 15 | |
| 3 | Farense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 14 | |
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 13 | |
| 5 | Academica | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 12 | |
| 6 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 12 | |
| 7 | Vizela | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 11 | |
| 8 | Benfica B | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 10 | |
| 9 | União de Leiria | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 10 | |
| 10 | Leixoes | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 10 | |
| 11 | Portimonense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 | |
| 12 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 9 | |
| 13 | FC Porto B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 7 | |
| 14 | Felgueiras 1932 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 | |
| 15 | Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 | |
| 16 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 | |
| 17 | Chaves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 | |
| 18 | Feirense | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 1 |