Danubio vs Cerro Largo Prediction - 4 October 2026
Our pick:Under 3.5 goals
82%Odds 1.20
Correct score1-1Alternative1-0
What is the prediction for Danubio vs Cerro Largo?
Our correct score is 1-1, then 1-0. Cerro Largo are in better form heading into this match.
Match analysis
Danubio and Cerro Largo both go into 4 October inside Uruguay's relegation fight, and neither has scored more than one goal in a game across its last five. Superior's pick for Danubio vs Cerro Largo is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20, a line the model rates at 82 percent with 1-1 as the correct score.
Both sides score 0.6 goals a game
Danubio's last five went 1-0 to Defensor Sporting away, 1-1 with Peñarol, 1-1 with Wanderers, 1-1 at Juventud and a 4-0 home defeat to Peñarol. Cerro Largo beat Rentistas 1-0, lost 2-0 at home to Nacional, drew 0-0 with Central Español and 1-1 with Defensor Sporting, and lost 2-1 at Atlético Torque. Superior's expected goals come from measured scoring and conceding, and two attacks at 0.6 a game add up to 1.2, far under a line of 3.5. The two meetings in the data, both at Cerro Largo, finished 2-0 and 1-0 to the home side.
Peñarol put four past Danubio in September
Danubio lost 4-0 at home to Peñarol on 5 September, and four goals is exactly what beats this line, even with Danubio failing to score. A repeat of that game, or a 3-1 or 2-2 between two sides that have both conceded regularly, beats the bet. Cerro Largo also come in on a quick turnaround after beating Rentistas on 30 September.
More tips for this game
- Goals: Under 2.5
- Correct score: 1-1
- Correct score: 1-0
Today's acca
2 games, total odds 1.60Get the daily pick and the morning ticket on Telegram.
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Head to Head
Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 March 2026 | Cerro Largo | 2 - 0 | Danubio |
| 18 August 2025 | Cerro Largo | 1 - 0 | Danubio |
League Table
League Table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29 | +24 | 58 | ||
| 2 | 30 | +19 | 55 | ||
| 3 | 29 | +17 | 53 | ||
| 4 | 15 | +7 | 27 | ||
| 4 | 30 | +12 | 53 | ||
| 5 | 30 | +7 | 49 | ||
| 6 | 30 | +2 | 47 | ||
| 7 | 30 | +11 | 46 | ||
| 8 | 30 | -7 | 38 | ||
| 9 | 30 | -4 | 36 | ||
| 10 | 30 | -7 | 35 | ||
| 11 | 30 | -2 | 34 | ||
| 12 | 30 | -6 | 33 | ||
| 13 | 30 | -20 | 33 | ||
| 14 | 30 | -13 | 30 | ||
| 15 | 30 | -18 | 28 | ||
| 16 | 30 | -15 | 26 |
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peñarol Montevideo | 29 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 48 | 24 | 24 | 58 | |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 46 | 27 | 19 | 55 | DLDWW |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 29 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 51 | 34 | 17 | 53 | LWWLW |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 27 | WWDWL |
| 4 | Racing Montevideo | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 36 | 24 | 12 | 53 | WLDDD |
| 5 | Club Nacional | 30 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 45 | 38 | 7 | 49 | LDWLW |
| 6 | Wanderers | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 38 | 36 | 2 | 47 | WWWDW |
| 7 | Liverpool Montevideo | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 39 | 28 | 11 | 46 | DWLDW |
| 8 | Central Espanol | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 38 | DLDDW |
| 9 | Juventud | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 36 | DWLDL |
| 10 | Defensor Sporting | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 35 | LDDDL |
| 11 | Albion FC | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 34 | DLDWL |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 33 | LWDDW |
| 13 | Cerro | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 33 | WWLLW |
| 14 | Boston River | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 30 | LLDDL |
| 15 | Progreso | 30 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 28 | WLLWL |
| 16 | Danubio | 30 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 24 | 39 | -15 | 26 | DLDDD |