Colo Colo vs Puerto Montt basketball prediction

LNB
Colo Colo
vs
Puerto Montt
Projected score
79-77
Home49%
Away51%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Colo Colo vs Puerto Montt?

Basketball: Colo Colo vs Puerto Montt (LNB). Projected 79-77. Colo Colo is favoured at 49%. Our projected total is 156 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

Match analysis

Colo Colo host Puerto Montt in LNB Chile on 6 September, and Superior's model projects a virtual coin flip, a 79-77 finish with the thinnest of home edges. That margin sits oddly against the form each side carries in: Colo Colo have lost five straight, three of them at home, while Puerto Montt have won four of their last five, twice by 20 points or more.

Colo Colo have lost three straight games at home

Colo Colo sit 7-18 this season and are averaging 76.0 points a game against 81.1 conceded, the wider gap of the two teams. Their last three home games ended 72-93, 60-61 and 70-81, all losses. Puerto Montt, despite a similar 9-17 record, arrive on a four-from-five run that includes wins by 92-72 and 88-66, pushing their own scoring rate to 78.9 a game. Both sides are fully rested, Colo Colo on 23 days off and Puerto Montt on 19, so the form gap is not about fatigue.

Puerto Montt concede more than Colo Colo do, at 83.0 a game

That number is the reason the model still gives Colo Colo the two-point scoreline edge despite the form gap. Puerto Montt's one loss in this stretch came when their offence stalled at 74 points against Valdivia, and a repeat of that low-scoring night against a rested Colo Colo defence would turn the projected coin flip into a comfortable home win rather than the away rout their recent record implies.

Written by the Superior Basketball Desk · Text drafted by claude-sonnet-5

AI-assisted analysis, written before kickoff from our model's numbers. Predictions are informed opinions, never guarantees.

How big could the win be?

  • Our projection: Colo Colo by 2Our projected margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginColo ColoPuerto Montt
Wins49%51%
By 6+35%35%
By 11+23%22%
By 16+13%12%
By 21+7%6%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that projects the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Colo Colo

Season record
7-19
Points per game
75.7
Points allowed
80.8
Rest
2 d
  1. L67-74Puerto Montt
  2. L72-85Puente Alto CD
  3. L72-93Universidad de Concepcion
  4. L60-61Leones Quilpue
  5. L67-80Espanol de Talca

Puerto Montt

Season record
10-17
Points per game
78.7
Points allowed
82.4
Rest
2 d
  1. W74-67Colo Colo
  2. W92-72Naviera Ulloa
  3. W88-66Ancud
  4. W82-79Espanol Osorno
  5. L74-80Valdivia

Head to head

  1. Sep 3, 26Puerto Montt74Colo Colo67

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology