Viimsi vs Bigbank/Kalev basketball prediction

Latvia-Estonian League
Viimsi
vs
Bigbank/Kalev
Correct score
78-92
Home12%
Away88%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Viimsi vs Bigbank/Kalev?

Basketball: Viimsi vs Bigbank/Kalev (Latvia-Estonian League). We make it 78-92. Bigbank/Kalev is favoured at 88%. Our predicted total is 170 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Bigbank/Kalev by 14Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginViimsiBigbank/Kalev
Wins12%88%
By 6+7%76%
By 11+4%62%
By 16+2%47%
By 21+1%33%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Viimsi

Rest
163 d
  1. L69-94Parnu
  2. L81-96Parnu
  3. L81-87Parnu
  4. L74-90Rigas Zelli
  5. L75-88Parnu

Bigbank/Kalev

Rest
120 d
  1. L65-85Tartu Ulikool
  2. W116-109Tartu Ulikool
  3. W83-77Tartu Ulikool
  4. L81-82Tartu Ulikool
  5. L78-83Tartu Ulikool

Head to head

  1. Jan 28, 26BC Kalev/Cramo110Viimsi73
  2. Oct 5, 25Viimsi82BC Kalev/Cramo100
  3. Mar 2, 25Viimsi85BC Kalev/Cramo98
  4. Nov 2, 24BC Kalev/Cramo99Viimsi61
  5. Mar 3, 24Viimsi70BC Kalev/Cramo95

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology