Universidad de Concepcion vs Puerto Montt basketball prediction

LNB
Universidad de Concepcion
vs
Puerto Montt
Correct score
94-78
Home87%
Away13%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Universidad de Concepcion vs Puerto Montt?

Basketball: Universidad de Concepcion vs Puerto Montt (LNB). We make it 94-78. Universidad de Concepcion is favoured at 87%. Our predicted total is 172 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Universidad de Concepcion by 16Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginUniversidad de ConcepcionPuerto Montt
Wins87%13%
By 6+77%6%
By 11+64%3%
By 16+49%1%
By 21+34%0%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Universidad de Concepcion

Season record
26-5
Points per game
95.5
Points allowed
77.5
Rest
11 d
  1. L72-79Leones Quilpue
  2. W97-96Puente Alto CD
  3. W103-80Espanol de Talca
  4. W97-76Leones Quilpue
  5. W79-54Universidad Catolica

Puerto Montt

Season record
13-17
Points per game
79.1
Points allowed
81.9
Rest
10 d
  1. W82-78CD Puerto Varas
  2. W81-68CD Puerto Varas
  3. W86-84Colo Colo
  4. W74-67Colo Colo
  5. W92-72Naviera Ulloa

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology