Ulm vs Wurzburg basketball prediction

BBL
Ulm
vs
Wurzburg
Correct score
83-78
Home68%
Away32%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Ulm vs Wurzburg?

Basketball: Ulm vs Wurzburg (BBL). We make it 83-78. Ulm is favoured at 68%. Our predicted total is 161 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Ulm by 5Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginUlmWurzburg
Wins68%32%
By 6+53%20%
By 11+38%12%
By 16+25%6%
By 21+15%3%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Ulm

Season record
1-0
Points per game
86
Points allowed
77
Rest
7 d
  1. W86-77MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg
  2. L87-96Bamberg
  3. L87-90Bamberg
  4. L74-80Bamberg
  5. W103-64Fraport Skyliners

Wurzburg

Rest
12 d
  1. L73-74Manchester Giants
  2. L63-66Bonn Telekom Baskets
  3. W82-70Bonn Telekom Baskets
  4. L76-80Bonn Telekom Baskets
  5. L81-88Bonn Telekom Baskets

Head to head

  1. May 2, 26Wurzburg98Ulm84
  2. Dec 29, 25Ulm66Wurzburg61
  3. Jun 12, 25Ulm91Wurzburg84
  4. Jun 10, 25Wurzburg78Ulm77
  5. Jun 7, 25Ulm99Wurzburg86

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology