Espanol Osorno vs Leones Quilpue basketball prediction

LNB
Espanol Osorno
vs
Leones Quilpue
Correct score
76-79
Home38%
Away62%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Espanol Osorno vs Leones Quilpue?

Basketball: Espanol Osorno vs Leones Quilpue (LNB). We make it 76-79. Leones Quilpue is favoured at 62%. Our predicted total is 155 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Leones Quilpue by 3Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginEspanol OsornoLeones Quilpue
Wins38%62%
By 6+24%45%
By 11+14%30%
By 16+7%17%
By 21+3%9%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Espanol Osorno

Season record
22-14
Points per game
81.2
Points allowed
77.8
Rest
10 d
  1. L65-74Ancud
  2. L82-83Valdivia
  3. L79-95CD Puerto Varas
  4. L91-94CD Las Ánimas
  5. L79-82Puerto Montt

Leones Quilpue

Season record
28-9
Points per game
82.3
Points allowed
77.2
Rest
10 d
  1. W87-75Puente Alto CD
  2. W79-72Universidad de Concepcion
  3. W79-76Universidad Catolica
  4. W96-69Espanol de Talca
  5. L76-97Universidad de Concepcion

Head to head

  1. Jun 14, 26Leones Quilpue77Espanol Osorno71
  2. Nov 1, 25Leones Quilpue68Espanol Osorno63
  3. Sep 14, 25Espanol Osorno57Leones Quilpue92
  4. Apr 14, 25Leones Quilpue73Espanol Osorno79
  5. Apr 6, 25Espanol Osorno64Leones Quilpue67

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology