Cholet vs Lyon-Villeurbanne basketball prediction

LNB
Cholet
vs
Lyon-Villeurbanne
Correct score
84-81
Home58%
Away42%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Cholet vs Lyon-Villeurbanne?

Basketball: Cholet vs Lyon-Villeurbanne (LNB). We make it 84-81. Cholet is favoured at 58%. Our predicted total is 165 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Cholet by 3Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginCholetLyon-Villeurbanne
Wins58%42%
By 6+44%28%
By 11+30%17%
By 16+19%9%
By 21+11%4%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Cholet

Rest
109 d
  1. L91-94Paris Basketball
  2. L86-95Paris Basketball
  3. L77-100Paris Basketball
  4. W90-89Paris Basketball
  5. W80-75Lyon-Villeurbanne

Lyon-Villeurbanne

Rest
8 d
  1. L71-73Roanne
  2. L75-80Cholet
  3. L65-77Cholet
  4. W75-67Cholet
  5. L76-87Paris Basketball

Head to head

  1. May 30, 26Lyon-Villeurbanne75Cholet80
  2. May 28, 26Cholet77Lyon-Villeurbanne65
  3. May 26, 26Lyon-Villeurbanne75Cholet67
  4. Mar 28, 26Cholet93Lyon-Villeurbanne85
  5. Feb 20, 26Lyon-Villeurbanne82Cholet93

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology