Breogan vs Joventut Badalona basketball prediction

ACB
Breogan
vs
Joventut Badalona
Correct score
88-89
Home42%
Away58%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Breogan vs Joventut Badalona?

Basketball: Breogan vs Joventut Badalona (ACB). We make it 88-89. Joventut Badalona is favoured at 58%. Our predicted total is 177 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Joventut Badalona by 1Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginBreoganJoventut Badalona
Wins42%58%
By 6+28%41%
By 11+17%26%
By 16+9%15%
By 21+4%8%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Breogan

Rest
7 d
  1. L110-113Dziki Warszawa
  2. W105-84Manchester Giants
  3. W126-80Rilski Sportist Samokov
  4. L94-95Basket Zaragoza
  5. L83-101Unicaja Malaga

Joventut Badalona

Rest
6 d
  1. W101-87Barcelona Bàsquet
  2. W96-84Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz
  3. L75-87Valencia
  4. L76-90Valencia
  5. L117-118Valencia

Head to head

  1. Apr 26, 26Breogan93Joventut Badalona86
  2. Dec 27, 25Joventut Badalona83Breogan75
  3. Apr 26, 25Breogan65Joventut Badalona82
  4. Oct 19, 24Joventut Badalona70Breogan76
  5. Mar 2, 24Joventut Badalona78Breogan70

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology