Avellino Basket vs Vigevano basketball prediction

Serie A2
Avellino Basket
vs
Vigevano
Correct score
84-77
Home73%
Away27%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Avellino Basket vs Vigevano?

Basketball: Avellino Basket vs Vigevano (Serie A2). We make it 84-77. Avellino Basket is favoured at 73%. Our predicted total is 161 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Avellino Basket by 7Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginAvellino BasketVigevano
Wins73%27%
By 6+57%15%
By 11+41%7%
By 16+25%3%
By 21+14%1%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Avellino Basket

Rest
133 d
  1. L61-93Fortitudo Bologna
  2. W76-67Fortitudo Bologna
  3. W75-71Fortitudo Bologna
  4. L64-69Fortitudo Bologna
  5. L58-76Fortitudo Bologna

Vigevano

Rest
493 d
  1. L77-85Libertas Livorno
  2. W83-79Libertas Livorno
  3. W79-72Libertas Livorno
  4. L99-105Libertas Livorno
  5. L100-106Libertas Livorno

Head to head

  1. Jan 26, 25Vigevano79Avellino Basket69
  2. Oct 12, 24Avellino Basket85Vigevano80

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology