APU Udine vs Scafati basketball prediction

Lega A
APU Udine
vs
Scafati
Correct score
88-82
Home69%
Away31%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for APU Udine vs Scafati?

Basketball: APU Udine vs Scafati (Lega A). We make it 88-82. APU Udine is favoured at 69%. Our predicted total is 170 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it APU Udine by 6Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginAPU UdineScafati
Wins69%31%
By 6+52%17%
By 11+36%8%
By 16+21%3%
By 21+11%1%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

APU Udine

Rest
140 d
  1. L71-98Basket Napoli
  2. L69-76Trento
  3. W95-83Pallacanestro Cantù
  4. L82-92Treviso
  5. L70-89Trieste Pallacanestro

Scafati

Rest
154 d
  1. W80-76Rimini
  2. W93-71Avellino Basket
  3. W88-83Cento
  4. W85-77Brindisi
  5. W81-76Sebastiani Rieti

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology