Alvik vs AIK Basket basketball prediction

Superettan
Alvik
vs
AIK Basket
Correct score
86-79
Home63%
Away37%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Alvik vs AIK Basket?

Basketball: Alvik vs AIK Basket (Superettan). We make it 86-79. Alvik is favoured at 63%. Our predicted total is 165 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Alvik by 7Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginAlvikAIK Basket
Wins63%37%
By 6+51%25%
By 11+38%16%
By 16+27%9%
By 21+17%5%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Alvik

Season record
1-0
Points per game
127
Points allowed
59
Rest
7 d
  1. W127-59Ockelbo
  2. L82-96Eskilstuna
  3. L83-87Eskilstuna
  4. W81-60Wetterbygden Stars
  5. L69-71Wetterbygden Stars

AIK Basket

Season record
1-0
Points per game
93
Points allowed
62
Rest
5 d
  1. W93-62Djurgarden
  2. L91-106Trelleborg
  3. W87-85Sollentuna
  4. W92-71Trelleborg
  5. W86-75Aros Basket

Head to head

  1. Dec 13, 25Alvik79AIK Basket74
  2. Nov 22, 25AIK Basket93Alvik63
  3. Feb 15, 25AIK Basket94Alvik100
  4. Dec 21, 24Alvik100AIK Basket92

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology