Spojnia Stargard vs Bytom basketball prediction

1 Liga
Spojnia Stargard
vs
Bytom
Correct score
85-83
Home55%
Away45%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Spojnia Stargard vs Bytom?

Basketball: Spojnia Stargard vs Bytom (1 Liga). We make it 85-83. Spojnia Stargard is favoured at 55%. Our predicted total is 168 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Spojnia Stargard by 2Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginSpojnia StargardBytom
Wins55%45%
By 6+40%31%
By 11+27%19%
By 16+16%11%
By 21+9%5%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Spojnia Stargard

Season record
1-0
Points per game
83
Points allowed
81
Rest
7 d
  1. W83-81GKS Tychy
  2. L78-79Starogard Gdanski
  3. W102-94Starogard Gdanski
  4. L85-101ŁKS Łódź
  5. L71-107ŁKS Łódź

Bytom

Season record
1-0
Points per game
91
Points allowed
85
Rest
7 d
  1. W91-85Krosno

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology