Saratov vs Samara basketball prediction

VTB United League
Saratov
vs
Samara
Correct scoreOur pick
81-77

Spread: Away +92.06

Home63%
Away37%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Bookmaker odds

Home1.20price rising, opened at 1.13
Away4.56price falling, opened at 4.84
Total points 158 line moved from 158.5
Over1.89
Under1.89
Spread -10.5
Home1.90price rising, opened at 1.88
Away1.90price rising, opened at 1.78

Market move since Sep 23. Crossed-out numbers are the opening price.

One bookmaker's current prices, settled including overtime, not a best-price comparison. Check the odds before you bet.

What is the prediction for Saratov vs Samara?

Basketball: Saratov vs Samara (VTB United League). We make it 81-77. Saratov is favoured at 63%. Our predicted total is 158 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Saratov by 4Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginSaratovSamara
Wins63%37%
By 6+48%24%
By 11+33%14%
By 16+21%7%
By 21+12%3%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Best bets

Best price found across bookmakers when computed. Odds move, so check the book before betting.

Form and context

Saratov

Rest
156 d
  1. L54-86Uralmash Ekaterinburg
  2. L60-73Parma Perm
  3. W75-72Enisey
  4. L65-86Unics Kazan
  5. L64-95Zenit Petersburg

Samara

Rest
156 d
  1. L61-79MBA Moscow
  2. W78-76Nizhny Novgorod
  3. L74-99Uralmash Ekaterinburg
  4. L65-76Parma Perm
  5. L72-109CSKA Moscow

Head to head

  1. Mar 11, 26Samara89Saratov94
  2. Feb 12, 26Saratov87Samara95
  3. Dec 20, 25Samara99Saratov102
  4. Oct 4, 25Saratov84Samara76
  5. Apr 13, 25Saratov84Samara69

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology