Ourense vs Tizona Burgos basketball prediction

LEB Oro
Ourense
vs
Tizona Burgos
Correct score
85-82
Home61%
Away39%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Ourense vs Tizona Burgos?

Basketball: Ourense vs Tizona Burgos (LEB Oro). We make it 85-82. Ourense is favoured at 61%. Our predicted total is 167 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Ourense by 3Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginOurenseTizona Burgos
Wins61%39%
By 6+44%25%
By 11+29%14%
By 16+16%7%
By 21+8%3%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Ourense

Rest
140 d
  1. L70-74Oviedo Baloncesto
  2. W93-84Melilla
  3. L70-73Hestia Menorca
  4. L90-93Palencia Baloncesto
  5. L57-94Obradoiro CAB

Tizona Burgos

Rest
140 d
  1. W93-80Cartagena CB
  2. W97-92Alicante
  3. W96-81Melilla
  4. W99-96Obradoiro CAB
  5. L76-96Estudiantes

Head to head

  1. Mar 14, 26Ourense79Tizona Burgos77
  2. Nov 23, 25Tizona Burgos77Ourense99
  3. Mar 2, 25Tizona Burgos83Ourense84
  4. Dec 1, 24Ourense86Tizona Burgos87
  5. Mar 3, 24Tizona Burgos85Ourense80

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology