Mersin Büyükşehir Belediyesi vs Konya BBSK basketball prediction

TBL
Mersin Büyükşehir Belediyesi
vs
Konya BBSK
Correct score
83-78
Home70%
Away30%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Mersin Büyükşehir Belediyesi vs Konya BBSK?

Basketball: Mersin Büyükşehir Belediyesi vs Konya BBSK (TBL). We make it 83-78. Mersin Büyükşehir Belediyesi is favoured at 70%. Our predicted total is 161 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Mersin Büyükşehir Belediyesi by 5Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginMersin Büyükşehir BelediyesiKonya BBSK
Wins70%30%
By 6+54%18%
By 11+38%10%
By 16+24%5%
By 21+14%2%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Mersin Büyükşehir Belediyesi

Season record
1-0
Points per game
100
Points allowed
70
Rest
7 d
  1. W100-70Ankara D.S.I.
  2. L80-90Trabzonspor
  3. L86-88Anadolu Efes Istanbul
  4. L93-101Merkezefendi
  5. L84-86Bursaspor

Konya BBSK

Season record
1-1
Points per game
78
Points allowed
75
Rest
6 d
  1. L81-91Harem Spor
  2. W75-59CO Basket
  3. L96-98Gaziantep
  4. W82-78Gaziantep
  5. L71-80Gaziantep

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology