Lancut vs Starogard Gdanski basketball prediction

1 Liga
Lancut
vs
Starogard Gdanski
Correct score
85-86
Home47%
Away53%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Lancut vs Starogard Gdanski?

Basketball: Lancut vs Starogard Gdanski (1 Liga). We make it 85-86. Starogard Gdanski is favoured at 53%. Our predicted total is 171 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Starogard Gdanski by 1Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginLancutStarogard Gdanski
Wins47%53%
By 6+33%38%
By 11+20%25%
By 16+12%15%
By 21+6%8%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Lancut

Season record
0-1
Points per game
93
Points allowed
95
Rest
4 d
  1. L93-95Polonia Warszawa
  2. L82-91Starogard Gdanski
  3. W82-81Starogard Gdanski
  4. L90-91Starogard Gdanski
  5. L81-94Starogard Gdanski

Starogard Gdanski

Rest
125 d
  1. W79-78Spojnia Stargard
  2. L94-102Spojnia Stargard
  3. L70-72Bydgoszcz
  4. W103-82Bydgoszcz
  5. L62-68Bydgoszcz

Head to head

  1. Apr 26, 26Lancut82Starogard Gdanski91
  2. Apr 25, 26Lancut82Starogard Gdanski81
  3. Apr 19, 26Starogard Gdanski91Lancut90
  4. Apr 18, 26Starogard Gdanski94Lancut81
  5. Jan 31, 26Starogard Gdanski78Lancut86

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology