Gambusinos vs Correcaminos UAT Victoria basketball prediction

LNBP
Gambusinos
vs
Correcaminos UAT Victoria
Correct score
91-82
Home70%
Away30%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Gambusinos vs Correcaminos UAT Victoria?

Basketball: Gambusinos vs Correcaminos UAT Victoria (LNBP). We make it 91-82. Gambusinos is favoured at 70%. Our predicted total is 173 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Gambusinos by 9Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginGambusinosCorrecaminos UAT Victoria
Wins70%30%
By 6+56%18%
By 11+42%10%
By 16+28%5%
By 21+17%2%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Gambusinos

Season record
9-13
Points per game
78.6
Points allowed
82.5
Rest
3 d
  1. L85-87Mineros
  2. W96-89Mineros
  3. L78-109Santos
  4. W89-77Santos
  5. W86-74Abejas

Correcaminos UAT Victoria

Season record
4-18
Points per game
82.3
Points allowed
93.2
Rest
4 d
  1. L52-93Fuerza Regia de Monterrey
  2. L83-94Fuerza Regia de Monterrey
  3. L91-96Diablos Rojos
  4. L79-107Diablos Rojos
  5. W85-83Dorados

Head to head

  1. Sep 15, 25Correcaminos UAT Victoria95Gambusinos85
  2. Sep 14, 25Correcaminos UAT Victoria96Gambusinos91

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology