Estela vs Hestia Menorca basketball prediction

LEB Oro
Estela
vs
Hestia Menorca
Correct score
77-79
Home40%
Away60%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Estela vs Hestia Menorca?

Basketball: Estela vs Hestia Menorca (LEB Oro). We make it 77-79. Hestia Menorca is favoured at 60%. Our predicted total is 156 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Hestia Menorca by 2Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginEstelaHestia Menorca
Wins40%60%
By 6+26%43%
By 11+15%28%
By 16+7%16%
By 21+3%8%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Estela

Rest
140 d
  1. L70-100Palencia Baloncesto
  2. L65-95Obradoiro CAB
  3. W89-86Zamora
  4. L80-89Baloncesto Fuenlabrada
  5. L74-82Alicante

Hestia Menorca

Rest
125 d
  1. L76-87Leyma Coruña
  2. W85-82Leyma Coruña
  3. L76-81Leyma Coruña
  4. L71-93Leyma Coruña
  5. W102-72Melilla

Head to head

  1. Feb 7, 26Hestia Menorca89Estela81
  2. Dec 13, 25Estela83Hestia Menorca80
  3. Mar 29, 25Hestia Menorca84Estela62
  4. Oct 6, 24Estela86Hestia Menorca87
  5. Mar 23, 24Hestia Menorca84Estela68

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology