Eskilstuna vs Djurgarden basketball prediction

Superettan
Eskilstuna
vs
Djurgarden
Correct score
90-81
Home68%
Away32%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Eskilstuna vs Djurgarden?

Basketball: Eskilstuna vs Djurgarden (Superettan). We make it 90-81. Eskilstuna is favoured at 68%. Our predicted total is 171 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Eskilstuna by 9Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginEskilstunaDjurgarden
Wins68%32%
By 6+56%21%
By 11+44%13%
By 16+32%7%
By 21+21%4%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Eskilstuna

Season record
2-0
Points per game
95
Points allowed
85
Rest
6 d
  1. W91-86IK Eos Lund
  2. W99-84Malbas
  3. L64-73Huddinge
  4. W83-73Huddinge
  5. L87-95Huddinge

Djurgarden

Season record
0-1
Points per game
62
Points allowed
93
Rest
4 d
  1. L62-93AIK Basket
  2. L86-94Huddinge
  3. W85-74Huddinge
  4. W93-70IK Eos Lund
  5. L78-79IK Eos Lund

Head to head

  1. Mar 1, 26Djurgarden104Eskilstuna93
  2. Feb 21, 26Eskilstuna61Djurgarden95
  3. Apr 7, 24Eskilstuna101Djurgarden94
  4. Mar 20, 24Djurgarden89Eskilstuna87

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology