Dorados vs Soles basketball prediction

LNBP
Dorados
vs
Soles
Correct score
77-85
Home29%
Away71%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Dorados vs Soles?

Basketball: Dorados vs Soles (LNBP). We make it 77-85. Soles is favoured at 71%. Our predicted total is 162 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Soles by 8Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginDoradosSoles
Wins29%71%
By 6+17%58%
By 11+9%44%
By 16+4%30%
By 21+2%19%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Dorados

Season record
14-8
Points per game
85.6
Points allowed
83.6
Rest
5 d
  1. W79-77Astros
  2. L80-87Astros
  3. W97-86El Calor de Cancun
  4. W91-89El Calor de Cancun
  5. L83-85Correcaminos UAT Victoria

Soles

Season record
17-5
Points per game
84.3
Points allowed
74.1
Rest
3 d
  1. L76-77Panteras
  2. W77-67Panteras
  3. W92-63Freseros de Irapuato
  4. W85-73Freseros de Irapuato
  5. L74-81Astros

Head to head

  1. Aug 10, 25Dorados85Soles76
  2. Aug 10, 25Dorados83Soles88
  3. Sep 14, 24Dorados101Soles98
  4. Sep 13, 24Dorados90Soles81

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology