BK Ogre vs VEF Riga basketball prediction

Latvia-Estonian League
BK Ogre
vs
VEF Riga
Correct score
79-85
Home28%
Away72%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for BK Ogre vs VEF Riga?

Basketball: BK Ogre vs VEF Riga (Latvia-Estonian League). We make it 79-85. VEF Riga is favoured at 72%. Our predicted total is 164 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it VEF Riga by 6Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginBK OgreVEF Riga
Wins28%72%
By 6+18%57%
By 11+10%42%
By 16+6%28%
By 21+3%17%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

BK Ogre

Rest
161 d
  1. L82-104Ventspils
  2. L66-75Ventspils
  3. L79-92Ventspils
  4. L101-106Latvijas Universitate
  5. L93-104BC Kalev/Cramo

VEF Riga

Season record
1-0
Points per game
104
Points allowed
66
Rest
2 d
  1. W104-66Latvijas Universitate
  2. L95-102Dziki Warszawa
  3. W105-88Absheron Lions
  4. L80-93Rigas Zelli
  5. L100-112Rigas Zelli

Head to head

  1. Nov 8, 25VEF Riga90BK Ogre74
  2. Oct 4, 25BK Ogre92VEF Riga94
  3. Jan 4, 25BK Ogre59VEF Riga81
  4. Nov 30, 24VEF Riga78BK Ogre73
  5. Mar 20, 24VEF Riga81BK Ogre74

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology