Bayern Munich vs ALBA Berlin basketball prediction

BBL
Bayern Munich
vs
ALBA Berlin
Correct score
87-78
Home79%
Away21%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Bayern Munich vs ALBA Berlin?

Basketball: Bayern Munich vs ALBA Berlin (BBL). We make it 87-78. Bayern Munich is favoured at 79%. Our predicted total is 165 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Bayern Munich by 9Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginBayern MunichALBA Berlin
Wins79%21%
By 6+65%13%
By 11+50%7%
By 16+36%3%
By 21+23%1%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Bayern Munich

Season record
1-0
Points per game
108
Points allowed
72
Rest
5 d
  1. W108-72Bamberg
  2. L81-84ALBA Berlin
  3. L61-71ALBA Berlin
  4. W91-83ALBA Berlin
  5. L79-86ALBA Berlin

ALBA Berlin

Season record
1-0
Points per game
89
Points allowed
82
Rest
7 d
  1. W89-82Chemnitz 99 Niners
  2. W84-81Bayern Munich
  3. W71-61Bayern Munich
  4. L83-91Bayern Munich
  5. W86-79Bayern Munich

Head to head

  1. Jun 21, 26Bayern Munich81ALBA Berlin84
  2. Jun 19, 26ALBA Berlin71Bayern Munich61
  3. Jun 17, 26ALBA Berlin83Bayern Munich91
  4. Jun 14, 26Bayern Munich79ALBA Berlin86
  5. Jun 12, 26Bayern Munich102ALBA Berlin94

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology