Alkar vs Cibona Zagreb basketball prediction

Premijer liga
Alkar
vs
Cibona Zagreb
Correct score
73-79
Home34%
Away66%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Alkar vs Cibona Zagreb?

Basketball: Alkar vs Cibona Zagreb (Premijer liga). We make it 73-79. Cibona Zagreb is favoured at 66%. Our predicted total is 152 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Cibona Zagreb by 6Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginAlkarCibona Zagreb
Wins34%66%
By 6+22%51%
By 11+12%37%
By 16+6%24%
By 21+3%14%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Alkar

Rest
139 d
  1. L70-87KK Dubrovnik
  2. L88-91GKK Šibenka
  3. W77-72Dinamo Zagreb
  4. L69-85Dubrava Zagreb
  5. W77-69Kvarner

Cibona Zagreb

Rest
107 d
  1. W82-75Zadar KK
  2. W73-67Zadar KK
  3. L70-87Zadar KK
  4. L57-92Zadar KK
  5. W74-72Zadar KK

Head to head

  1. Mar 21, 26Alkar65Cibona Zagreb70
  2. Feb 2, 26Cibona Zagreb92Alkar67
  3. Nov 15, 25Alkar66Cibona Zagreb73
  4. May 10, 25Cibona Zagreb85Alkar90
  5. Jan 17, 25Alkar88Cibona Zagreb85

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology