Alicante vs Baloncesto Fuenlabrada basketball prediction

LEB Oro
Alicante
vs
Baloncesto Fuenlabrada
Correct score
79-80
Home43%
Away57%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Alicante vs Baloncesto Fuenlabrada?

Basketball: Alicante vs Baloncesto Fuenlabrada (LEB Oro). We make it 79-80. Baloncesto Fuenlabrada is favoured at 57%. Our predicted total is 159 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Baloncesto Fuenlabrada by 1Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginAlicanteBaloncesto Fuenlabrada
Wins43%57%
By 6+28%41%
By 11+16%26%
By 16+8%15%
By 21+4%7%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Alicante

Rest
126 d
  1. L72-113Estudiantes
  2. L67-74Estudiantes
  3. L77-93Estudiantes
  4. L76-83Zamora
  5. L92-97Tizona Burgos

Baloncesto Fuenlabrada

Rest
119 d
  1. L51-76Palencia Baloncesto
  2. W78-72Palencia Baloncesto
  3. W88-81Palencia Baloncesto
  4. L79-83Palencia Baloncesto
  5. L52-90Palencia Baloncesto

Head to head

  1. Feb 15, 26Baloncesto Fuenlabrada87Alicante90
  2. Dec 16, 25Alicante91Baloncesto Fuenlabrada86
  3. Feb 15, 25Baloncesto Fuenlabrada85Alicante63
  4. Oct 27, 24Alicante69Baloncesto Fuenlabrada81
  5. Apr 6, 24Baloncesto Fuenlabrada77Alicante71

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology