Abejas vs Santos basketball prediction

LNBP
Abejas
vs
Santos
Correct score
88-84
Home59%
Away41%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Abejas vs Santos?

Basketball: Abejas vs Santos (LNBP). We make it 88-84. Abejas is favoured at 59%. Our predicted total is 172 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Abejas by 4Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginAbejasSantos
Wins59%41%
By 6+44%27%
By 11+30%16%
By 16+18%9%
By 21+10%4%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Abejas

Season record
8-14
Points per game
83.5
Points allowed
85.1
Rest
4 d
  1. L57-63Freseros de Irapuato
  2. W100-80Freseros de Irapuato
  3. L67-80Lobos Plateados
  4. L87-91Lobos Plateados
  5. L74-86Gambusinos

Santos

Season record
7-15
Points per game
83.2
Points allowed
89.7
Rest
4 d
  1. L84-99Lobos Plateados
  2. L86-95Lobos Plateados
  3. W109-78Gambusinos
  4. L77-89Gambusinos
  5. L74-103Fuerza Regia de Monterrey

Head to head

  1. Aug 9, 25Santos90Abejas75
  2. Aug 8, 25Santos87Abejas91
  3. Oct 17, 24Abejas105Santos98
  4. Oct 16, 24Abejas83Santos84
  5. Jul 13, 24Santos98Abejas91

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology