Phoenix Mercury Women vs Las Vegas Aces Women basketball prediction

NBA Women
Phoenix Mercury Women
vs
Las Vegas Aces Women
Correct score
85-90
Home28%
Away72%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Phoenix Mercury Women vs Las Vegas Aces Women?

Basketball: Phoenix Mercury Women vs Las Vegas Aces Women (NBA Women). We make it 85-90. Las Vegas Aces Women is favoured at 72%. Our predicted total is 175 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Las Vegas Aces Women by 5Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginPhoenix Mercury WomenLas Vegas Aces Women
Wins28%72%
By 6+18%55%
By 11+10%38%
By 16+5%24%
By 21+2%13%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Phoenix Mercury Women

Season record
16-28
Points per game
84.8
Points allowed
87.8
Rest
3 d
  1. W87-86Dallas Wings Women
  2. L82-87Dallas Wings Women
  3. W94-91Portland Women
  4. W101-69Toronto Tempo Women
  5. L73-80Washington Mystics Women

Las Vegas Aces Women

Season record
30-15
Points per game
91
Points allowed
86.4
Rest
2 d
  1. W89-79Los Angeles Sparks Women
  2. W98-77Seattle Storm Women
  3. W114-77Seattle Storm Women
  4. W93-73Toronto Tempo Women
  5. W88-78Toronto Tempo Women

Head to head

  1. Jul 11, 26Las Vegas Aces Women106Phoenix Mercury Women58
  2. Jun 18, 26Phoenix Mercury Women76Las Vegas Aces Women86
  3. May 9, 26Las Vegas Aces Women66Phoenix Mercury Women99
  4. Oct 11, 25Phoenix Mercury Women86Las Vegas Aces Women97
  5. Oct 9, 25Phoenix Mercury Women88Las Vegas Aces Women90

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology