Phoenix Hagen vs Ulm basketball prediction

BBL
Phoenix Hagen
vs
Ulm
Correct score
88-85
Home66%
Away34%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Phoenix Hagen vs Ulm?

Basketball: Phoenix Hagen vs Ulm (BBL). We make it 88-85. Phoenix Hagen is favoured at 66%. Our predicted total is 173 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Phoenix Hagen by 3Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginPhoenix HagenUlm
Wins66%34%
By 6+50%23%
By 11+35%14%
By 16+22%7%
By 21+13%4%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Phoenix Hagen

Season record
0-1
Points per game
92
Points allowed
102
Rest
6 d
  1. L92-102Rostock Seawolves
  2. W93-86Crailsheim Merlins
  3. W93-82Kirchheim Knights
  4. L82-86Kirchheim Knights
  5. W85-65Bremerhaven

Ulm

Season record
1-0
Points per game
86
Points allowed
77
Rest
5 d
  1. W86-77MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg
  2. L87-96Bamberg
  3. L87-90Bamberg
  4. L74-80Bamberg
  5. W103-64Fraport Skyliners

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology