Minnesota Lynx Women vs Indiana Fever Women basketball prediction

NBA Women
Minnesota Lynx Women
vs
Indiana Fever Women
Correct score
95-91
Home62%
Away38%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Minnesota Lynx Women vs Indiana Fever Women?

Basketball: Minnesota Lynx Women vs Indiana Fever Women (NBA Women). We make it 95-91. Minnesota Lynx Women is favoured at 62%. Our predicted total is 186 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Minnesota Lynx Women by 4Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginMinnesota Lynx WomenIndiana Fever Women
Wins62%38%
By 6+47%25%
By 11+32%14%
By 16+20%8%
By 21+11%4%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Minnesota Lynx Women

Season record
34-11
Points per game
90.2
Points allowed
83.3
Rest
2 d
  1. L77-96Indiana Fever Women
  2. W101-89Connecticut Sun Women
  3. L81-93New York Liberty Women
  4. L81-89Atlanta Dream Women
  5. L66-80Golden State Valkyries Women

Indiana Fever Women

Season record
28-17
Points per game
96
Points allowed
91.2
Rest
2 d
  1. W96-77Minnesota Lynx Women
  2. L77-93Washington Mystics Women
  3. W103-85Toronto Tempo Women
  4. W111-91Connecticut Sun Women
  5. L90-113Chicago Sky Women

Head to head

  1. Sep 23, 26Indiana Fever Women96Minnesota Lynx Women77
  2. Aug 2, 26Minnesota Lynx Women108Indiana Fever Women100
  3. Sep 9, 25Indiana Fever Women83Minnesota Lynx Women72
  4. Aug 24, 25Minnesota Lynx Women97Indiana Fever Women84
  5. Aug 22, 25Indiana Fever Women90Minnesota Lynx Women95

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology