Bataan Risers vs Pasig City basketball prediction

MPBL
Bataan Risers
vs
Pasig City
Correct score
98-83
Home90%
Away10%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Bataan Risers vs Pasig City?

Basketball: Bataan Risers vs Pasig City (MPBL). We make it 98-83. Bataan Risers is favoured at 90%. Our predicted total is 181 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v3Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Bataan Risers by 15Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginBataan RisersPasig City
Wins90%10%
By 6+80%5%
By 11+67%3%
By 16+52%1%
By 21+38%0%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Bataan Risers

Season record
13-14
Points per game
90.8
Points allowed
83.1
Rest
14 d
  1. L89-96GenSan Warriors
  2. W99-78Marikina Verdiamonds
  3. W65-63Batangas City
  4. W94-87Zamboanga Sikat
  5. W90-73Sarangani Marlins

Pasig City

Season record
12-15
Points per game
85.1
Points allowed
91.5
Rest
3 d
  1. L69-78Pasay Voyagers
  2. L88-89Quezon City
  3. L79-121Binan Tatak Gel
  4. W92-80Marikina Verdiamonds
  5. L87-96Batang Kankaloo

Head to head

  1. May 12, 26Pasig City97Bataan Risers91
  2. Oct 2, 25Pasig City78Bataan Risers99
  3. May 14, 25Pasig City88Bataan Risers85

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology