Universidad de Concepcion vs CD Puerto Varas basketball prediction

LNB
Universidad de Concepcion
vs
CD Puerto Varas
Correct score
92-77
Home89%
Away11%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Universidad de Concepcion vs CD Puerto Varas?

Basketball: Universidad de Concepcion vs CD Puerto Varas (LNB). We make it 92-77. Universidad de Concepcion is favoured at 89%. Our predicted total is 169 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Universidad de Concepcion by 15Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginUniversidad de ConcepcionCD Puerto Varas
Wins89%11%
By 6+78%6%
By 11+63%3%
By 16+47%1%
By 21+32%0%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Universidad de Concepcion

Season record
26-5
Points per game
95.5
Points allowed
77.5
Rest
8 d
  1. L72-79Leones Quilpue
  2. W97-96Puente Alto CD
  3. W103-80Espanol de Talca
  4. W97-76Leones Quilpue
  5. W79-54Universidad Catolica

CD Puerto Varas

Season record
21-18
Points per game
79.9
Points allowed
80
Rest
7 d
  1. L78-82Puerto Montt
  2. L68-81Puerto Montt
  3. W76-75Universidad Catolica
  4. W83-62Universidad Catolica
  5. W95-79Espanol Osorno

Head to head

  1. Oct 16, 25CD Puerto Varas66Universidad de Concepcion78
  2. Mar 22, 25CD Puerto Varas84Universidad de Concepcion85
  3. Feb 8, 25Universidad de Concepcion80CD Puerto Varas71
  4. Jan 26, 25CD Puerto Varas90Universidad de Concepcion84
  5. Jan 11, 25Universidad de Concepcion77CD Puerto Varas78

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology