New York Liberty Women vs Atlanta Dream Women basketball prediction

NBA Women
New York Liberty Women
vs
Atlanta Dream Women
Correct score
89-89
Home48%
Away52%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for New York Liberty Women vs Atlanta Dream Women?

Basketball: New York Liberty Women vs Atlanta Dream Women (NBA Women). We make it 89-89. Atlanta Dream Women is favoured at 52%. Our predicted total is 178 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it levelOur predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginNew York Liberty WomenAtlanta Dream Women
Wins48%52%
By 6+34%37%
By 11+21%23%
By 16+12%13%
By 21+6%7%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

New York Liberty Women

Season record
29-16
Points per game
90.3
Points allowed
86.2
Rest
3 d
  1. W106-69Toronto Tempo Women
  2. W93-81Minnesota Lynx Women
  3. W85-66Chicago Sky Women
  4. L60-79Golden State Valkyries Women
  5. W109-102Indiana Fever Women

Atlanta Dream Women

Season record
29-15
Points per game
90.9
Points allowed
84.8
Rest
4 d
  1. W106-81Chicago Sky Women
  2. W103-59Connecticut Sun Women
  3. W89-81Minnesota Lynx Women
  4. L83-101Portland Women
  5. W78-71Los Angeles Sparks Women

Head to head

  1. Jun 11, 26Atlanta Dream Women90New York Liberty Women104
  2. Aug 23, 25Atlanta Dream Women78New York Liberty Women62
  3. Jul 13, 25New York Liberty Women79Atlanta Dream Women72
  4. Jun 29, 25Atlanta Dream Women90New York Liberty Women81
  5. Jun 17, 25New York Liberty Women86Atlanta Dream Women81

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology