Connecticut Sun Women vs Toronto Tempo Women basketball prediction

NBA Women
Correct score
87-86
Home50%
Away50%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Connecticut Sun Women vs Toronto Tempo Women?

Basketball: Connecticut Sun Women vs Toronto Tempo Women (NBA Women). We make it 87-86. Connecticut Sun Women is favoured at 50%. Our predicted total is 173 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Connecticut Sun Women by 1Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginConnecticut Sun WomenToronto Tempo Women
Wins50%50%
By 6+36%34%
By 11+23%21%
By 16+13%12%
By 21+7%6%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Connecticut Sun Women

Season record
11-33
Points per game
78.5
Points allowed
88
Rest
4 d
  1. L89-101Minnesota Lynx Women
  2. L59-103Atlanta Dream Women
  3. L71-97Dallas Wings Women
  4. L91-111Indiana Fever Women
  5. L64-89Golden State Valkyries Women

Toronto Tempo Women

Season record
11-32
Points per game
85.3
Points allowed
93.6
Rest
4 d
  1. L69-106New York Liberty Women
  2. L85-103Indiana Fever Women
  3. L69-101Phoenix Mercury Women
  4. L73-93Las Vegas Aces Women
  5. L78-90Seattle Storm Women

Head to head

  1. Jun 19, 26Connecticut Sun Women97Toronto Tempo Women101
  2. Jun 10, 26Toronto Tempo Women106Connecticut Sun Women102
  3. Apr 29, 26Toronto Tempo Women78Connecticut Sun Women83

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology