Portland Women vs Golden State Valkyries Women basketball prediction

NBA Women
Portland Women
vs
Golden State Valkyries Women
Correct score
78-86
Home19%
Away81%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Portland Women vs Golden State Valkyries Women?

Basketball: Portland Women vs Golden State Valkyries Women (NBA Women). We make it 78-86. Golden State Valkyries Women is favoured at 81%. Our predicted total is 164 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Golden State Valkyries Women by 8Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginPortland WomenGolden State Valkyries Women
Wins19%81%
By 6+12%64%
By 11+6%47%
By 16+3%31%
By 21+1%19%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Portland Women

Season record
14-27
Points per game
86
Points allowed
90.6
Rest
4 d
  1. L66-82Golden State Valkyries Women
  2. L91-94Phoenix Mercury Women
  3. L69-86Golden State Valkyries Women
  4. W101-83Atlanta Dream Women
  5. L78-96Dallas Wings Women

Golden State Valkyries Women

Season record
30-11
Points per game
82.3
Points allowed
75.1
Rest
4 d
  1. W82-66Portland Women
  2. W86-69Portland Women
  3. W79-60New York Liberty Women
  4. W89-64Connecticut Sun Women
  5. W80-66Minnesota Lynx Women

Head to head

  1. Sep 19, 26Golden State Valkyries Women82Portland Women66
  2. Aug 30, 26Portland Women69Golden State Valkyries Women86
  3. Jun 3, 26Golden State Valkyries Women95Portland Women77

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology