Nagasaki vs Shimane basketball prediction

B League
Nagasaki
vs
Shimane
Correct score
85-79
Home71%
Away29%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Nagasaki vs Shimane?

Basketball: Nagasaki vs Shimane (B League). We make it 85-79. Nagasaki is favoured at 71%. Our predicted total is 164 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Nagasaki by 6Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginNagasakiShimane
Wins71%29%
By 6+55%18%
By 11+39%10%
By 16+25%5%
By 21+14%2%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Nagasaki

Rest
120 d
  1. W72-64Ryukyu Golden Kings
  2. W66-60Ryukyu Golden Kings
  3. L69-71Ryukyu Golden Kings
  4. W102-93Chiba
  5. W82-74Chiba

Shimane

Rest
143 d
  1. L68-90Nagoya Fighting Eagles
  2. W91-85Nagoya Fighting Eagles
  3. W81-69Ibaraki Robots
  4. L79-88Ibaraki Robots
  5. L74-106Nagasaki

Head to head

  1. Apr 22, 26Nagasaki106Shimane74
  2. Dec 24, 25Shimane101Nagasaki93
  3. Apr 9, 25Shimane72Nagasaki63
  4. Feb 2, 25Nagasaki96Shimane74
  5. Feb 1, 25Nagasaki69Shimane78

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology