Indiana Fever Women vs Minnesota Lynx Women basketball prediction

NBA Women
Indiana Fever Women
vs
Minnesota Lynx Women
Correct score
92-93
Home47%
Away53%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Indiana Fever Women vs Minnesota Lynx Women?

Basketball: Indiana Fever Women vs Minnesota Lynx Women (NBA Women). We make it 92-93. Minnesota Lynx Women is favoured at 53%. Our predicted total is 185 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Minnesota Lynx Women by 1Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginIndiana Fever WomenMinnesota Lynx Women
Wins47%53%
By 6+33%37%
By 11+21%24%
By 16+12%13%
By 21+6%7%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Indiana Fever Women

Season record
27-16
Points per game
96.5
Points allowed
91.4
Rest
4 d
  1. W103-85Toronto Tempo Women
  2. W111-91Connecticut Sun Women
  3. L90-113Chicago Sky Women
  4. L102-109New York Liberty Women
  5. L85-91Dallas Wings Women

Minnesota Lynx Women

Season record
33-10
Points per game
90.3
Points allowed
82.8
Rest
4 d
  1. L81-93New York Liberty Women
  2. L81-89Atlanta Dream Women
  3. L66-80Golden State Valkyries Women
  4. W94-84Washington Mystics Women
  5. W77-66Golden State Valkyries Women

Head to head

  1. Aug 2, 26Minnesota Lynx Women108Indiana Fever Women100
  2. Sep 9, 25Indiana Fever Women83Minnesota Lynx Women72
  3. Aug 24, 25Minnesota Lynx Women97Indiana Fever Women84
  4. Aug 22, 25Indiana Fever Women90Minnesota Lynx Women95
  5. Jul 2, 25Minnesota Lynx Women59Indiana Fever Women74

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology