Abejas vs Freseros de Irapuato basketball prediction

LNBP
Abejas
vs
Freseros de Irapuato
Projected score
89-86
Home57%
Away43%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Abejas vs Freseros de Irapuato?

Basketball: Abejas vs Freseros de Irapuato (LNBP). Projected 89-86. Abejas is favoured at 57%. Our projected total is 175 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • Our projection: Abejas by 3Our projected margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginAbejasFreseros de Irapuato
Wins57%43%
By 6+41%29%
By 11+27%18%
By 16+16%10%
By 21+9%5%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that projects the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Abejas

Season record
7-13
Points per game
84
Points allowed
86.5
Rest
5 d
  1. L67-80Lobos Plateados
  2. L87-91Lobos Plateados
  3. L74-86Gambusinos
  4. L83-87Gambusinos
  5. W76-75Fuerza Regia de Monterrey

Freseros de Irapuato

Season record
8-12
Points per game
85.3
Points allowed
90.1
Rest
6 d
  1. L63-92Soles
  2. L73-85Soles
  3. W90-86Lobos Plateados
  4. W82-71Lobos Plateados
  5. L67-77Astros

Head to head

  1. Jul 30, 25Freseros de Irapuato61Abejas78
  2. Jul 29, 25Freseros de Irapuato78Abejas79
  3. Sep 3, 24Freseros de Irapuato99Abejas91
  4. Sep 2, 24Freseros de Irapuato102Abejas95

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology