Quezon City vs Bataan Risers basketball prediction

MPBL
Quezon City
vs
Bataan Risers
Projected score
82-87
Home28%
Away72%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Quezon City vs Bataan Risers?

Basketball: Quezon City vs Bataan Risers (MPBL). Projected 82-87. Bataan Risers is favoured at 72%. Our projected total is 169 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • Our projection: Bataan Risers by 5Our projected margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginQuezon CityBataan Risers
Wins28%72%
By 6+20%57%
By 11+13%43%
By 16+8%30%
By 21+5%20%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that projects the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Quezon City

Season record
14-13
Points per game
83.9
Points allowed
82.9
Rest
6 d
  1. W89-88Pasig City
  2. L54-70Batangas City
  3. W65-61Mindoro Tamaraws
  4. W107-95Sarangani Marlins
  5. L51-79Abra Weavers

Bataan Risers

Season record
13-14
Points per game
90.8
Points allowed
83.1
Rest
9 d
  1. L89-96GenSan Warriors
  2. W99-78Marikina Verdiamonds
  3. W65-63Batangas City
  4. W94-87Zamboanga Sikat
  5. W90-73Sarangani Marlins

Head to head

  1. Jun 24, 26Quezon City88Bataan Risers103
  2. Jun 12, 25Bataan Risers88Quezon City95

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology