Mineros vs Gambusinos basketball prediction

LNBP
Mineros
vs
Gambusinos
Projected score
86-79
Home70%
Away30%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Mineros vs Gambusinos?

Basketball: Mineros vs Gambusinos (LNBP). Projected 86-79. Mineros is favoured at 70%. Our projected total is 165 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • Our projection: Mineros by 7Our projected margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginMinerosGambusinos
Wins70%30%
By 6+54%19%
By 11+39%11%
By 16+25%5%
By 21+14%2%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that projects the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Mineros

Season record
11-9
Points per game
87.1
Points allowed
84.5
Rest
3 d
  1. L84-87Fuerza Regia de Monterrey
  2. W101-100Fuerza Regia de Monterrey
  3. W98-85Diablos Rojos
  4. L75-81Diablos Rojos
  5. W92-82Dorados

Gambusinos

Season record
8-12
Points per game
77.5
Points allowed
82
Rest
3 d
  1. L78-109Santos
  2. W89-77Santos
  3. W86-74Abejas
  4. W87-83Abejas
  5. L75-85Lobos Plateados

Head to head

  1. Aug 10, 25Gambusinos95Mineros99
  2. Aug 9, 25Gambusinos100Mineros104

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology