Djurgarden vs AIK Basket basketball prediction

Superettan
Djurgarden
vs
AIK Basket
Correct scoreOur pick
88-79

Spread: Home +11.66

Home77%
Away23%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Bookmaker odds

Home1.57price falling, opened at 1.67
Away2.13price rising, opened at 1.93
Total points 160.75 line moved from 160.5
Over1.77
Under1.80
Spread -3.5 line moved from -1.5
Home1.84
Away1.74

Market move since Sep 20. Crossed-out numbers are the opening price.

One bookmaker's current prices, settled including overtime, not a best-price comparison. Check the odds before you bet.

What is the prediction for Djurgarden vs AIK Basket?

Basketball: Djurgarden vs AIK Basket (Superettan). We make it 88-79. Djurgarden is favoured at 77%. Our predicted total is 167 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • We make it Djurgarden by 9Our predicted margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginDjurgardenAIK Basket
Wins77%23%
By 6+64%14%
By 11+50%8%
By 16+36%4%
By 21+24%2%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that predicts the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Best bets

Best price found across bookmakers when computed. Odds move, so check the book before betting.

Form and context

Djurgarden

Rest
139 d
  1. L86-94Huddinge
  2. W85-74Huddinge
  3. W93-70IK Eos Lund
  4. L78-79IK Eos Lund
  5. W82-76Ockelbo

AIK Basket

Rest
163 d
  1. L91-106Trelleborg
  2. W87-85Sollentuna
  3. W92-71Trelleborg
  4. W86-75Aros Basket
  5. W73-56Ockelbo

Head to head

  1. Dec 6, 25AIK Basket68Djurgarden73
  2. Sep 27, 25Djurgarden92AIK Basket75
  3. Mar 9, 25AIK Basket61Djurgarden86
  4. Jan 24, 25Djurgarden90AIK Basket69
  5. Mar 1, 24Djurgarden83AIK Basket86

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology