Connecticut Sun Women vs Minnesota Lynx Women basketball prediction

NBA Women
Connecticut Sun Women
vs
Minnesota Lynx Women
Projected score
79-89
Home12%
Away88%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Connecticut Sun Women vs Minnesota Lynx Women?

Basketball: Connecticut Sun Women vs Minnesota Lynx Women (NBA Women). Projected 79-89. Minnesota Lynx Women is favoured at 88%. Our projected total is 168 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • Our projection: Minnesota Lynx Women by 10Our projected margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginConnecticut Sun WomenMinnesota Lynx Women
Wins12%88%
By 6+7%73%
By 11+3%56%
By 16+1%39%
By 21+1%25%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that projects the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Connecticut Sun Women

Season record
11-32
Points per game
78.3
Points allowed
87.7
Rest
2 d
  1. L59-103Atlanta Dream Women
  2. L71-97Dallas Wings Women
  3. L91-111Indiana Fever Women
  4. L64-89Golden State Valkyries Women
  5. W87-81Chicago Sky Women

Minnesota Lynx Women

Season record
33-10
Points per game
90.3
Points allowed
82.8
Rest
1 dback-to-back
  1. L81-93New York Liberty Women
  2. L81-89Atlanta Dream Women
  3. L66-80Golden State Valkyries Women
  4. W94-84Washington Mystics Women
  5. W77-66Golden State Valkyries Women

Head to head

  1. Jul 8, 26Connecticut Sun Women80Minnesota Lynx Women86
  2. Jul 7, 26Minnesota Lynx Women89Connecticut Sun Women90
  3. Aug 30, 25Connecticut Sun Women70Minnesota Lynx Women94
  4. Jun 29, 25Minnesota Lynx Women102Connecticut Sun Women63
  5. May 23, 25Minnesota Lynx Women76Connecticut Sun Women70

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology