Portland Women vs Phoenix Mercury Women basketball prediction

NBA Women
Portland Women
vs
Phoenix Mercury Women
Projected score
89-88
Home54%
Away46%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Portland Women vs Phoenix Mercury Women?

Basketball: Portland Women vs Phoenix Mercury Women (NBA Women). Projected 89-88. Portland Women is favoured at 54%. Our projected total is 177 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • Our projection: Portland Women by 1Our projected margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginPortland WomenPhoenix Mercury Women
Wins54%46%
By 6+39%31%
By 11+25%18%
By 16+15%10%
By 21+7%5%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that projects the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Portland Women

Season record
14-25
Points per game
86.3
Points allowed
90.7
Rest
18 d
  1. L69-86Golden State Valkyries Women
  2. W101-83Atlanta Dream Women
  3. L78-96Dallas Wings Women
  4. L100-105Washington Mystics Women
  5. L79-82Toronto Tempo Women

Phoenix Mercury Women

Season record
14-27
Points per game
84.6
Points allowed
87.8
Rest
19 d
  1. W101-69Toronto Tempo Women
  2. L73-80Washington Mystics Women
  3. L84-94Washington Mystics Women
  4. L89-99Atlanta Dream Women
  5. L85-88Portland Women

Head to head

  1. Aug 16, 26Phoenix Mercury Women85Portland Women88
  2. Jun 6, 26Portland Women72Phoenix Mercury Women78

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology