Dallas Wings Women vs Los Angeles Sparks Women basketball prediction

NBA Women
Dallas Wings Women
vs
Los Angeles Sparks Women
Projected score
93-85
Home78%
Away22%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Dallas Wings Women vs Los Angeles Sparks Women?

Basketball: Dallas Wings Women vs Los Angeles Sparks Women (NBA Women). Projected 93-85. Dallas Wings Women is favoured at 78%. Our projected total is 178 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • Our projection: Dallas Wings Women by 8Our projected margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginDallas Wings WomenLos Angeles Sparks Women
Wins78%22%
By 6+62%13%
By 11+46%7%
By 16+30%3%
By 21+18%1%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that projects the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Dallas Wings Women

Season record
26-16
Points per game
89.4
Points allowed
85.2
Rest
17 d
  1. W97-71Connecticut Sun Women
  2. W96-78Portland Women
  3. W92-70Seattle Storm Women
  4. W91-85Indiana Fever Women
  5. L70-78Golden State Valkyries Women

Los Angeles Sparks Women

Season record
16-25
Points per game
87.3
Points allowed
91.4
Rest
18 d
  1. W90-74Seattle Storm Women
  2. L82-88Washington Mystics Women
  3. L71-78Atlanta Dream Women
  4. W77-68Connecticut Sun Women
  5. L88-124Atlanta Dream Women

Head to head

  1. Jul 19, 26Dallas Wings Women90Los Angeles Sparks Women82
  2. Jun 6, 26Los Angeles Sparks Women96Dallas Wings Women104
  3. Sep 7, 25Los Angeles Sparks Women91Dallas Wings Women77
  4. Aug 21, 25Los Angeles Sparks Women81Dallas Wings Women80
  5. Aug 15, 25Dallas Wings Women96Los Angeles Sparks Women97

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology