Lobos Plateados vs Abejas basketball prediction

LNBP
Lobos Plateados
vs
Abejas
Projected score
86-82
Home63%
Away37%

Winner probability. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

What is the prediction for Lobos Plateados vs Abejas?

Basketball: Lobos Plateados vs Abejas (LNBP). Projected 86-82. Lobos Plateados is favoured at 63%. Our projected total is 168 points. Settlement is the final score including overtime. The model does not see injuries.

Model basketball-ridge-margin-v2Methodology

How big could the win be?

  • Our projection: Lobos Plateados by 4Our projected margin clears every row above this line and falls short of the rows below it.
Show the numbers
Chance of winning by at least each margin, for both teams.
MarginLobos PlateadosAbejas
Wins63%37%
By 6+48%24%
By 11+33%14%
By 16+21%7%
By 21+11%3%
Cumulative: each row is the chance of winning by at least that margin, so the series only falls. The model does not see injuries or rest news.

How many points will fall?

Probability of the combined score clearing each line, from the same model that projects the score. Settlement is the final score including overtime.

Form and context

Lobos Plateados

Season record
10-8
Points per game
82.4
Points allowed
81.2
Rest
5 d
  1. L86-90Freseros de Irapuato
  2. L71-82Freseros de Irapuato
  3. W85-75Gambusinos
  4. W79-65Gambusinos
  5. L90-91Fuerza Regia de Monterrey

Abejas

Season record
7-11
Points per game
84.7
Points allowed
86.6
Rest
5 d
  1. L74-86Gambusinos
  2. L83-87Gambusinos
  3. W76-75Fuerza Regia de Monterrey
  4. L84-95Fuerza Regia de Monterrey
  5. L73-75Diablos Rojos

Head to head

  1. Sep 20, 24Abejas92Lobos Plateados97
  2. Sep 19, 24Abejas92Lobos Plateados86

Computed from our own stored results. Rest and back-to-back are inputs of the model; injuries and lineups are not, and it never sees them.

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This is a new model with no long public track record. Methodology